Has the ETH/BTC rotation trade stopped working or is it just resetting positioning?

The usual cycle is familiar:

BTC leads = ETH catches up = alts follow

But right now, that sequence feels broken.

Instead:

BTC dominance holds or grinds higher

ETH reacts, but doesn’t expand

alt rotations fade quickly

Looking at it through a positioning lens:

BTC continues to attract passive and institutional flows

ETH participation feels more short-term and reactive

attempts at rotation get crowded early and unwind

Which suggests the issue may not be narrative, it may be how capital is positioned

If rotation trades are being anticipated too early:

They become liquidity events instead of trends.

That would explain why:

ETH moves start, then stall, then reverse

So this becomes less about “when ETH runs”

and more about whether the rotation framework itself is being front-run.

At this stage, it’s not clear whether ETH is lagging or whether the market is simply too early on the trade.

Interested to hear how others are interpreting this shift.